ETD

• data envelopment analysis
• economic efficiency
• environmental efficiency
• European Union
• grey forecasting
• malmquist productivity index
• renewable energy transition

The objective of this thesis is to analyze how well different European countries reduce environmental and energy inputs with economic and demographic outputs held fixed. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the Malmquist Productivity Index, and Grey forecasting are used for EU-27, Norway, and Iceland for 2014–2023 and projected to 2026. Greenhouse gas emissions, total energy consumption, and renewable energy consumption are modeled as inputs, with GDP and population held as fixed outputs. The results demonstrate that differences in country efficiencies persist over time and that there has been little overall improvement in efficiency over the past decade despite persistent environmental investment and policy support at the EU-level. The forecasts suggest that differences in country efficiency are likely to remain and may even increase over time, which has negative implications for the credibility of the EU's 2050 target for climate-neutrality. The use of combined historical and forward-looking estimates highlights which countries are likely to be most constrained in reducing environmental and energy inputs, as well as how those constraints will drive the dynamics of the European energy transition.