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Archivio digitale delle tesi discusse presso l’Università di Pisa

Tesi etd-11012023-120406


Tipo di tesi
Tesi di laurea magistrale
Autore
SAMMARINI, ANITA
URN
etd-11012023-120406
Titolo
Modeling Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Comparative Study of Local Projections and Vector Autoregressive Models in the Presence of Heteroskedasticity
Dipartimento
ECONOMIA E MANAGEMENT
Corso di studi
ECONOMICS
Relatori
relatore Prof.ssa Parenti, Angela
Parole chiave
  • GARCH
  • Heteroskedasticity
  • Local Projection
  • VAR
Data inizio appello
01/12/2023
Consultabilità
Non consultabile
Data di rilascio
01/12/2093
Riassunto
While LPs and VARs are known to asymptotically estimate the same impulse response function, their relative performance in a small sample setting lacks in-depth exploration and understanding. This dissertation aims at filling the gap in literature underscored by this need presenting a comparative study of the two methodologies in i.i.d. and heteroskedastic setting. Heteroskedasticity in time series data has been exploited within the VAR framework to identify structural shocks, however the implications of its influence on the estimation of structural impulse responses have not been thoroughly examined. The undertaken analysis addresses this overlooked research area by proposing a simulation study that extends the examination of VAR and LP properties to a small sample setting in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. I conduct a comparative study of VAR and LP properties, testing the methodologies' reliability and robustness to misspecification in the specified settings. Misspecification and overspecification are modeled experimenting with different lag selection procedures. Specifically, the former is assessed experimenting with Akaike and Schwarz information criteria while the latter refers to the case in which the lag length is fixed and chosen to be double that of the DGP.
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