• affidabilità
• analisi probabilistica
• effetto domino
• efficacia
• incendio
• propagazione

A methodology for the probabilistic assessment of fired domino escalation through the analysis of safety barriers is presented. The identification and characterization of fire protection systems typically installed in refinery tank farms, LPG storage facilities and offshore installations was carried out. The performances of active, passive and procedural measures for fire protection were evaluated in terms of availability, effectiveness and response time and assessed through a LOPA approach. Vulnerability functions were developed for the characterization of target equipment behavior and for the evaluation of the time to failure. A modified escalation probability was defined to consider the influence of mitigation barriers on fire attack and target resistance. The application of the methodology to two case-studies allowed the estimation of the frequency of mitigated domino scenarios triggered by fire and the residual frequency of non-mitigated domino scenarios.