ETD

• capm
• company valuation
• cost of capital
• dcf
• Monte Carlo simulation
• periodic approaches
• simulation-based valuation
• wacc

The thesis analyzes the company valuation process through a critical comparison between the main traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models and alternative approaches.
After a theoretical presentation of traditional DCF models, the thesis highlights their structural and applicative limitations, with particular reference to the assumptions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the difficulty of incorporating specific business risk.
Subsequently, periodic approaches are examined, which allow for a more realistic representation of the financial structure over time, and an innovative valuation methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation, aimed at including non-systematic risk through probability distributions and risk measures.
The different methodologies are applied to a real case study, the El.En. case, allowing for an empirical comparison of the results. The analysis shows substantial convergence between the models, highlighting how the choice of valuation method should depend on the business context, risk profile, and objectives of the analyst.