• gluten-free
• cereali
• cereals
• miglioramento genetico
• breeding
• etiopia
• ethiopia
• climate change
• cambiamento climatico
• teff
• varabili bioclimatiche
• bioclimatic variables

Climate change is dramatically affecting small-scale farming productivity in the world south. The phenotypic and climatic characterization of indigenous crop resources cultivated in smallholder settings may anticipate climate change effects on future habitat suitability, therefore providing an opportunity to address the challenges that emerging countries will face to support food security. In the Ethiopian highlands, teff (Eragrostis teff Zucc.) is cultivated since thousands of years in marginal fields in smallholder settings and is used as a staple food by farming communities and as a market good for growing urbanized communities. This study aims at characterizing teff climatic and phenotypic variation in the country. To do so, we focus on a collection of 3,845 teff accessions maintained by the Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute and sampled throughout the country from 1967 to 2015 at altitudes varying from 902 to 3090 masl. This collection represents the most complete representation of teff diversity available worldwide, and includes 2,084 genotypes whose sampling coordinates are known and allow to match phenotypic variation with climatic data. Nineteen bioclimatic variables and two soil acidity indicators were used to describe the environmental niches of teff cropping in Ethiopia. Ten phenotypic traits were collected to measure the distribution of teff types in each Ethiopian region and adaptation zone. The geographic distribution of the crop showed that teff accessions are cultivated in a broad range of environments with very varied bioclimatic features, supporting its tolerance to variations in temperature and precipitation. The collection showed a broad range of variation for a number of traits of breeding relevance such as panicle type and phenology, and supports the further characterization of the teff allele pool for breeding purposes; different altitude classes and administrative regions bear vast potential for teff breeding. Finally, climate projections from global climate models and climatic data are used for species distribution modeling on the teff collection. Two possible Representative Concentration Pathways are considered: a medium (RCP 4.5) and a more severe (RCP 8.5) scenarios. According to both models, the current teff cultivation area in Ethiopia will witness a worsening of the teff suitability by 2070. Projected habitat suitability may be a starting point for research and policy programs, in order to preserve the key role of teff in food security in Ethiopia.