• AHP
• Decision-support system
• GIS
• Honduras.
• Multi-criteria Decision Analysis
• Participatory Approaches
• Spatial Planning
• Sustainable Development
• Transition Management

Sustainable development is currently acknowledged as being a possible basis for solving complex problems, such as overpopulation, water scarcity, poverty, climate change, or loss of biodiversity. These problems occur in different natural and socioeconomic systems characterized by multiple elements and factors (Folke, C., et al., 2002; Pearce, D.,1988; Zaman, G. & Goshin, Z., 2010). Supporting those systems to improve their sustainability requires the development of specific strategies by policy makers, public officers and project managers. However, each territory area presents multiple factors and elements that policy makers and public officers should take into account for the sustainable development of the area. In fact the assessment of all those territory elements should refer to the evaluation of social, economic, cultural, and environmental interactions as well as to governance processes and the stakeholders and managers interests and opportunities (Olazabal, M. et al., 2007). The simultaneous consideration of these multiple territory elements is required to understand the essence of these complex systems and thus to make suitable decisions and choices. Therefore the implementation of specific actions and strategies should proceed regularly with the support of researches and technical investigations. In this regard the capacity of integrating all the aspects that sustainability has to take into account (economic, environmental, social, public participation, governance processes, etc.) with appropriate tools of spatial planning, improves the chances of developing and implementing efficient action plans from an integrate point of view. For all the above described reasons, GIS based multi-criteria analyses (MCA), integrated with participatory tools, are considered, among the literature, as proper and suitable analyses for the evaluation of the multiple territory elements (Graymore, M. et al., 2007; Greene, R., et al., 2011; Mohamed, A. et al., 2006). Furthermore, there is an often implicit assumption that the use of models integrating GIS systems, MCA and participatory approaches can provide decision support to planners and organizations and can assist them to define innovative strategies and actions. Lastly, in accordance with the literature, this approach can lead to a better and fairer governance, due to the understanding of needs, interests and desires of local stakeholders. (Alshuwaikhat, H. & Aina, Y. 2006; Gerrit J. & Ligtenberg, A. 2007; Jankowski, P., & Richard, L., 1994; Kamal A. & Rashed-Ali H., 2013; Malczewski J., 2006; McCall, M. K. & Minang P. A., 2005).
The research case study is ‘La Botija’ protected area, located in the municipality of San Marcos de Colón, in the south-east part of Honduras, at the border with Nicaragua. In particular the investigated area is characterized by multiple complex social, environmental and economic problems (e.g. water pollution, lack of economic resources, lack of infrastructures, lack of cooperation and motivation of local residents, etc.). This thesis aims to develop an analysis model integrating spatial (GIS-based) multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods with a specific strategic participatory planning process for analyzing the multiple elements and problems of the investigated area. In particular, the main objective of the proposed analysis model is to identify the priority intervention areas of ‘La Botija’ protected area, simultaneously analyzing both quantitative and qualitative data collected during a fieldwork of three months.
The final goal of the thesis is to support decision making processes and to give advice to policy makers, public administrators and project managers. In fact, the proposed analysis model represents a decision support system (DSS) useful for the development of strategies and actions for sustainable development and improvement of the area. The analytical model could be used by public decision-makers and project managers to understand which areas need priority interventions. The analysis of the suitability maps provides information on the best intervention strategies for the sustainable development of the protected area and its rural communities. The model allows an analysis of the situation both at specific level, looking at rural communities, and at general level, investigating the whole protected area. The creation of suitability maps focusing on eighteen specific themes (e.g. water system, sewer system, school density, water treatments, etc.) permits to analyze both individually and collectively the multiple elements of the area.
The specific participatory approach used in this research is defined as a ‘strategic planning process for transformative change’ and it was developed by DRIFT (The Dutch Research Institute for Transitions) of the Erasmus University of Rotterdam (The Netherlands) with the collaboration of the Monash Water for Liveability Institute of the Monash University of Melbourne (Australia). The applied methodology is based on Transition Management approach. Transition management is an alternative governance approach for sustainable development which seeks to support the transformative change of socio-political landscapes and socio-technical practices (Frantzeskaki, N. et. al, 2012; Loorbach, D., 2007; Rotmans, J., et al., 2001).
The involvement of local residents through the use of a participatory approach represents a fundamental key of the thesis. The use of this specific participatory methodology aims to promote empowerment by supporting community members’ participation in decision making and actions. Local citizens are supported to make transformative change in their practices and to improve their awareness about environmental and social issues. In addition, the demands of local citizens could be analyzed and visualized by policy makers, public administrators and project managers to develop projects closer to needs, desires and interests of local residents.
The methodological approach of this research can be organized in several steps. At a first phase (April-December 2013), the researcher learned about ‘Transition theory’ and ‘Transition management’ methods during an internship in the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (DRIFT) of the Erasmus University of Rotterdam (The Netherlands). At a second stage the research focused on the literature review and the formulation of the research case study and research objectives (December 2013-January 2014). At a later stage the interview guidelines and the workshops framework were formulated (January 2014). From February to May 2014 the researcher conducted the fieldwork in ‘La Botija’ protected area. During this period qualitative and quantitative data were collected. Specifically the qualitative data collection was realized through the conduction of fifty-seven in-person semi-structured interviews, the participation in fourteen meetings and public events and the participatory observation of the rural life of thirteen rural communities of ‘La Botija’ protected area. In addition, the researcher organized and realized thirteen workshops with the local citizens of the protected area. These workshops aimed to collect qualitative data and, at the same time, to support the action and the transformative change of the local citizens towards a long-term vision of a sustainable future. Furthermore geographical data referring to the territory elements of the investigated area were elaborated with the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In particular ESRI’s ArcGIS project was used to create suitability maps of specific territory elements (e.g. communities, rivers, streets, bus routes, schools, health centers, etc.). At a later stage both quantitative and qualitative data were analyzed. Regarding the qualitative data analysis, all the recorded and written information were reviewed and transcribed in Spanish. In total twelve Spanish reports of the investigated communities were developed and provided to each community. Subsequently the reports were traduced by the author from Spanish to English and analyzed. Additionally the quantitative date were examined. The integration of qualitative and quantitative data analysis produced the System Analysis including the problems analysis and the actors analysis.
The last stage of the research regarded the construction of an analysis model (May-June 2014). The development of the analysis model can be divided in its turn into three different phases: (a) construction of a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) framework, (b) qualitative and quantitative data analysis through the model, (c) assessment phase with the definition of priorities areas. In the first phase, the hierarchical decision tree of multi-criteria analysis was defined and criteria and attributes were weighted through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). In the second stage the qualitative and quantitative data previously analyzed were inserted into the analysis model and suitability maps were created by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). At the third stage the multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was elaborated by GIS with the aim to individualize the intervention priorities areas creating a final map. In particular during this phase suitability maps were transformed into preference maps by weighting them. Then the preference maps were combined, in order to visualize the priority intervention areas in a unique map.
In conclusion, an analysis model has been developed integrating GIS-based multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and participatory methods. In particular, the creation of the conclusive map reveals that the south-east part of ‘La Botija’ protected area represents the priority intervention area. The maps show which are the major needs and lacks that require to be solved in each point of the investigated area. In this way the analysis model represents an useful and valuable tool that can be used by local policy makers and project managers for developing strategies supporting the sustainable planning and development of the area.
The present thesis revealed that there are a number of research challenges that could be developed in the future. First of all suitability map using Ortho photos could be created to compare with the maps created from a topographic map. Secondly a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) or Digital Elevation Model (DEM) could be developed to analyze the altimetry of ‘La Botija’ protected area. The creation of a DTM is also fundamental for the calculation of the real distance travelled and time spent on the journey. Additionally the pairwise comparison of weights between criteria and attributes was elaborated directly by the author without the involvement of local stakeholders. For this reason in the future could be useful to organize a meeting to develop a pairwise comparison by the local actors, residents and stakeholders of the area.
The present thesis includes six chapters in total and is organized as follows. Chapter one presents theoretical context of the research focusing on the use of specific spatial (GIS-based) multi-criteria analysis methods in developing countries within the academic literature. Additionally Chapter one introduces the research objectives and the research questions. The second Chapter describes the methodology approach. Chapter three defines the case study context. Chapter four consists in the in-depth qualitative and quantitative data analysis. Chapter five presents the analysis model. In this regard, firstly, the phases of creation of the model are illustrated. Secondly, the suitability maps created with the model are presented. Finally, the Multi-criteria analysis elaborated by the model are explained. Chapter six provides the conclusions of the thesis based on findings of the research and discussions of the results. This last chapter includes also some critical remarks on the research and related future research challenges.