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Tesi etd-09112008-125717

Thesis type
Tesi di laurea specialistica
email address
The interplay between demography, epidemiology and the economy: the impacts of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Corso di studi
Relatore Prof. Manfredi, Piero
Parole chiave
  • Economic Growth
  • Development
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Demographic Transition
Data inizio appello
Riassunto analitico
During the last century Africa started to experience the Demographic Transition. In<br>particular most Sub-Saharan African countries have already experienced a substantial<br>decline in mortality, and have also experienced some decline in fertility. In the span<br>of three decades of HIV pandemic the impact of AIDS on mortality, in countries with<br>intermediate and high prevalence, has already been substantial. In high-prevalence<br>countries life-expectancy has experienced a dramatic decline as a consequence of the<br>super-mortality from AIDS. For instance in Botswana and Zimbabwe life expectancy<br>declined from about 60 years in 1990 to about 35-36 years in 2005 (UNAIDS 2007).<br>Therefore HIV/AIDS has been able to revert the level of general mortality of these<br>populations to levels that were observed at the beginning of the DT. It is therefore<br>trivial to remark that HIV/AIDS is, at least, substantially delaying the timing of the<br>mortality transition in these countries. An important question is then:<br>“to what extent can the super-mortality from AIDS affect the demographic transition<br>and the related patterns of economic growth?”.<br>In order to find an answer to this question we elaborated a dynamic model to simulate<br>the impact that the interplay between the DT and HIV can have on economic growth.<br>First we developed a demo-epidemiological model using real data to evaluate the<br>impact of HIV on the DT under two main scenarios:<br>A) INELUCTABLE: in this scenario we simply assume that even under circumstances<br>of high HIV/AIDS prevalence the fertility and the mortality from causes<br>different from AIDS are unaffected and continue their transitional trend.<br>B) HOMEOSTATIC: even if the transition of mortality from causes different<br>from AIDS remains ineluctable, the fertility transition is stopped by the mortality<br>relapse, and an epoch of HIV-induced fertility relapse occurs. This is a way to<br>incorporate the evidence (Kalemli-Ozcan 2006,2008) that the AIDS generated decline<br>in life expectancy could lead to a potentially significant fertility relapse.<br>Next we developed an expanded economic growth model &#34;a la Solow&#34; to investigate<br>how an HIV/AIDS epidemic, affecting population growth (in particular labour force<br>growth), could affect the process of economic growth.